中国石化新闻网

中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2021年10月30日报道，由于欧洲进入供暖季节，天然气库存降至10年来最低水平，决策者、消费者和工业都在任凭天气摆布，希望一个暖冬能避免供应本已紧张的欧洲天然气市场进一步吃紧。 在2020/2021年冬季比以往更冷之后，由于亚洲买家一直在抢购液化天然气货物，欧洲最近几个月一直在努力将天然气储存设施填充到保证供应的水平。买家更愿意将液化天然气运往亚洲，因为亚洲每百万英热单位的天然气价格高于欧洲价格。

尽管全球天然气价格飙升源于欧洲的低库存，并导致亚洲液化天然气现货价格创下纪录，但亚洲正在赢得现货液化天然气供应的竞价战，这导致欧洲天然气供应更加不足。

今年冬天与去年冬天不同，日本和韩国等主要液化天然气进口国为了确保国内更多的供应，做好了应对今年与欧洲相同寒冬的准备。

因此，彭博新能源财经（BNEF）在本周的一份分析报告中表示：“欧洲用于补充天然气储存的自由流动供应减少了，BNEF估计，现在欧洲地区已进入冬季，天然气储存的满负荷仅为71%，而5年的季节性标准为92%”。

在这种低天然气库存和已然吃紧的天然气市场的情况下，寒冷的冬天可以使得欧洲天然气价格在未来几个月内飙升至纪录新高，从而市场加快对煤炭和石油产品的抢购，并在供暖季节结束时让欧洲没有任何天然气储备。 欧洲大陆将不得不在明年冬天到来之前补充供应。由于欧洲大陆将不得不在明年冬天到来之前补充供应，这将支撑高气价至2022年。

BNEF分析师表示：“在经历一个比往年更冷的冬天以后，欧洲可能会几乎没有天然气储备，但在一个温暖的冬天结束时，天然气储备可能会高于季节性标准。”

如果今年冬天更冷，欧洲将需要额外的天然气供应，而这不太可能来自太多的额外液化天然气，尤其是在亚洲同样更冷的冬天，亚洲有动机以及用比从欧洲运来的货物更高价格购买。

法国道达尔能源公司在本周发布的第三季度业绩中表示：“除非出现异常温和的冬季，否则天然气的低库存水平和预期的持续需求可能会使欧洲和亚洲的天然气价格保持在高位，直到2022年第二季度”。

挪威是仅次于俄罗斯的欧洲第二大天然气供应国，在Equinor获准增加奥斯伯格和特罗尔油田的天然气出口以后，挪威将在今年冬季向欧洲增加天然气供应。

然而，Equinor表示，即使是一个正常的冬天——更不用说更冷的冬天——也会对欧洲的天然气供应造成压力。

俄罗斯近日表示，一旦俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(俄气/Gazprom)将俄罗斯储气库的填满，它将开始填满欧洲的天然气储气库。 但莫斯科也表示，一旦德国当局批准有争议的北溪-2管道，俄罗斯就会立即增加对欧洲客户的天然气供应。

能源咨询公司伍德麦肯兹在10月初表示，除非俄罗斯增加天然气供应，否则欧洲可能没有足够的天然气来满足寒冷冬天的需求，尤其是如果亚洲的冬天也很冷的话。

伍德麦肯兹负责天然气和液化天然气研究的副总裁马西莫·奥多尔多表示，在正常的冬季天气条件下，尽管目前储存水平较低，但欧洲在满足需求方面不会有问题。

“如果欧洲和亚洲今年的冬天都很冷，这个供应系统就会非常虚弱。 欧洲对供暖的需求增加可能会增加天然气200亿立方米，亚洲增加105亿立方米，这将导致欧洲可获得的液化天然气进口减少。这将耗尽欧洲库存的所有天然气，天然气价格可能会远高于我们目前看到的水平，” 奥多尔多如是说。

As Europe enters the heating season with natural gas inventories at the lowest level in a decade, policymakers, consumers, and industries are left at the mercy of the weather, hoping for a mild winter to avoid further tightening of the already tight European gas market. Following the colder than usual 2020/2021 winter, Europe has been struggling to fill gas storage sites to adequate levels in recent months as Asian buyers have been snapping up LNG cargoes. Buyers prefer to ship LNG to Asia where the price of gas per million British thermal units is higher than the equivalent prices in Europe.

Despite the fact that the global gas price surge originated from woefully low inventories in Europe and led to record Asian LNG spot prices, Asia is winning the bidding war for spot LNG supply, leaving Europe undersupplied.

This winter, unlike last winter, major LNG buyers such as Japan and South Korea have moved to secure more supply and be prepared if this winter is as cold as the previous one.

As a result, "Europe has had less free flowing supply to replenish gas storage, and now the region is heading into winter with storage only 71% full, BloombergNEF estimates, compared to the five-year seasonal norm of 92%," BNEF said in an analysis this week.

In this situation of low gas inventories and an already tight gas market, a colder winter could send Europe's gas prices soaring to new record highs in coming months, accelerate the rush to coal and oil products, and leave Europe with no gas in storage at the end of the heating season. This would support high gas prices through 2022 as the continent will have to replenish supply before the next winter comes.

"Europe could end up with almost no gas left in storage after a colder-than-normal winter, but above seasonal norms at the end of a warm one," BNEF analysts say.

In case of a colder winter, Europe will need extra supply, and it's unlikely that this would come from too much additional LNG, especially in a similarly colder winter in Asia, which has the motivation and purchasing power to outbid cargoes away from Europe.

"Barring an exceptionally mild winter, the low inventory level for gas and expected sustained demand are likely to keep gas prices in Europe and Asia at high levels until the second quarter 2022," TotalEnergies said in its Q3 results release this week.

Norway, Europe's second-largest gas supplier after Russia, is boosting gas deliveries this winter season after Equinor was allowed to raise gas exports from the Oseberg and Troll fields.

Yet, Equinor says that even a normal winter—let alone a colder one—would be a strain on European gas supply.

Russia signaled this week it would start filling European storage sites once Gazprom completes the filling of the Russian storage. But Moscow also says that an immediate boost to supply for European customers would come as soon as German authorities approve the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

Europe may not have enough natural gas to meet demand in a cold winter, especially if Asia's winter is cold too, unless Russian gas deliveries rise, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said in early October.

Under normal winter weather conditions, Europe will not have a problem with meeting demand, despite the current low storage levels, said Massimo Di Odoardo, Vice President, Gas and LNG Research, at WoodMac.

"The system creaks if there's a cold winter in both Europe and Asia. Higher demand for heating could add up to 20 Bcm in Europe and 10.5 Bcm in Asia, resulting in lower LNG imports available to Europe. That would suck up all the gas left in European storage, and gas prices could go much higher than we've seen so far," he said.

"The sky could be the limit for European gas prices this winter," Di Odoardo added.