中石化新闻讯 据3月2日CNBC报导，opec 电力能源同盟将根据视频会议系统举办，以就怎么管理市场需求达成协议。
在这周的供货决策颁布之时，石油价格已反跳至疫情爆发前的水准，英国的生产制造遭受寒冷的严厉打击，再加上肺炎疫情的困境再次笼罩着销售市场。
投资分析师广泛预估，opec 将在当今水准上提高效益，但到底有多少及其哪些国家将遭受危害仍是个难题。一些全世界最具知名度的石油输出国将于周四举办一场重要大会，探讨撤销上年一部分限产措施。
2020年opec 愿意限定原油生产量，以提升石油价格，由于严苛的公共卫生服务对策正逢史无前例的然料要求冲击性。
opec实际上的领导人员沙特公布激励原油生产的国家在生产制造现行政策上维持“极为慎重”的心态，警示该机构不必骄傲自满，由于必须寻找解决依然在全世界范畴内扩散的肺炎疫情困境。
据报道，在上个月的一次领域主题活动上，沙特阿拉伯能源部长阿卜杜勒阿齐兹·本·萨勒曼对这些尝试预测分析opec 下一步行動的人说:“不必尝试预测分析不能预测分析的事儿。”
PVM原油研究会(PVM Oil Associates)投资分析师Tamas Varga表明，他觉得opec和非opec合作方在再次均衡销售市场层面干了“令人震惊的工作中”。殊不知，虽然全世界原油要求已经再生，但他警示称，再生仍“十分、十分敏感”。
非常值得关心的是乌克兰和沙特。乌克兰的盈亏平衡费用预算比沙特阿拉伯低得多，因此这两个我国在见解上存有差别，但是，沙特阿拉伯和乌克兰都是会“得偿所愿”。
2020年，opec 最开始愿意破纪录地将原油总产量减少970万桶，接着将限产力度减少至770万桶，最后从1月份逐渐将限产经营规模减少至720万桶。自2月初至3月，opec关键会员国沙特已同意附加限产一百万桶。
乌克兰国家副总理亚力山大 诺瓦克(Alexander Novak)暗示着，巴黎有心提升原油供货，称销售市场已做到均衡。
SEB顶尖大宗商品现货投资分析师Bjarne Schieldrop在一份调查报告中表明：“乌克兰期待尽早恢复过来生产制造，而沙特阿拉伯期待在一段时间内享有高油价，并让销售市场维持过度紧张，而不是释放压力情况。大家觉得俩家企业都能获得自身要想的物品。”
他填补称，乌克兰很有可能批准进一步高产，而沙特将“一部分或很有可能所有”修复每天一百万桶的附加限产。
沙特的申明说明她们是持慎重心态的。在新冠肺炎预苗真实对世界经济主题活动和原油要求造成功效以前，与其说是销售市场会发生供大于求的状况，比不上维持一点焦虑不安心态。因而，将要举办的opec 大会不大可能对4月份供货导致危害，由于整体結果很可能会让销售市场发生供货稍微紧缺，而不是产能过剩。
值得一提的是，opec 都还没准备好更改当今发展战略。周二早上，国际性标准国际原油期货行情报一桶63.01美金，下滑近1.1%，而英国西得克萨斯州中质期货原油价钱报一桶60.02美金，下滑超出1%。要了解，原油价格上个月飙升至13月高些。
当前油价好像持续了上星期逐渐的下跌，缘故是销售市场预估opec 很有可能会提升全世界供货。
Rystad Energy的投资分析师路易丝·迪克森(Louise Dickson)表明:“大家的预估是，依照她们在2020年12月公布的现行政策协议书，石油价格可能增涨。换句话说，总产量增长幅度不超过五十万桶。大家期待此项现行政策依然合理。”opec理论上能够提升130万桶/天的生产量，但大家觉得此次不容易过多调节。”
迪克森注重“从销售市场角度观察，乌克兰将堆积机械能，但大家沒有见到彻底的变化。上年，opec 一直死死地把握在沙特的操纵下，具体指导现行政策，作出决策，作威作福这些。并且在对销售市场和供货开展了一年的调研以后，我觉得，opec 不容易由于一时冲动而更改线路，将国际原油价钱保持在65美元/桶，或是让能源需求日渐趋于紧张。”
投资分析师预估，opec 将探讨在周四容许最多每日130万桶的石油重回销售市场。
王奕晶 摘译自 CNBC
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Saudi and Russia are at loggerheads again, but OPEC meeting ‘unlikely to ruin the oil party’
OPEC and its non-OPEC partners, an energy alliance sometimes referred to as OPEC , will convene via videoconference in a bid to reach consensus over how to manage supply to the market.
This week’s supply decision comes at a time when oil prices have rebounded to pre-virus levels, production in the U.S. has taken a hit from freezing storms and the coronavirus pandemic continues to cloud the outlook.
Analysts broadly expect OPEC to hike output from current levels, but questions remain over how much exactly and which countries will be affected.
A group of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers will hold a crucial meeting on Thursday to discuss reversing some of the output cuts it made last year.
OPEC and its non-OPEC partners, an energy alliance sometimes referred to as OPEC , will convene via videoconference in a bid to reach consensus over how to manage supply to the market.
The group last year agreed to restrict the amount of oil it produces in an effort to prop up oil prices as strict public health measures coincided with an unprecedented fuel demand shock.
This week’s supply decision comes at a time when oil prices have rebounded to pre-virus levels, production in the U.S. has taken a hit from freezing storms and the coronavirus pandemic continues to cloud the outlook.
OPEC’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia has publicly encouraged allied partners to remain “extremely cautious” on production policy, warning the group against complacency as it seeks to navigate the ongoing Covid-19 crisis.
Non-OPEC leader Russia, meanwhile, has indicated it wants to push ahead with a supply increase.
Analysts broadly expect OPEC to hike output from current levels, but questions remain over how much exactly and which countries will be affected.
At an industry event last month, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman reportedly said to those trying to foresee the energy alliance’s next move: “Don’t try to predict the unpredictable.”
Both Saudi and Russia ‘will get what they want’
Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates, told CNBC via telephone that he believed OPEC and non-OPEC partners had done an “amazing job” in rebalancing the market.
However, while the global oil demand is recovering, he warned that the recovery is still “very, very fragile.”
“What really matters here is Russia and Saudi Arabia. The breakeven price for Russia’s budget is much lower than that of Saudi Arabia, so you will see a kind of gap in the views between these two countries,” Varga said.
OPEC initially agreed to cut oil production by a record of 9.7 million barrels per day last year, before easing cuts to 7.7 million and eventually 7.2 million from January. OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has since taken on voluntary cuts of 1 million from the beginning of February through March.
Alexander Novak, Russia’s deputy prime minister, appeared to signal Moscow’s intent for a supply increase last month, claiming the market has already balanced.
“Russia wants to move back towards normal production as quickly as possible while Saudi Arabia wants to enjoy high prices a little while longer and rather keep the market on the tight side than the loose side. We think both will get what they want,” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodity analyst at SEB, said in a research note.
Russia will likely be allowed to increase output further, he added, while Saudi Arabia will return “some or potentially all” of its 1 million barrels per day unilateral cut.
Analysts expect OPEC to discuss allowing as much as 1.3 million barrels per day back into the market on Thursday.
“Statements from Saudi Arabia indicates that they are on the cautious side. Rather to keep it a little tight a little too long than to run into an oversupply before Covid-19 vaccines have truly made their magic on global economic activity and oil demand,” Schieldrop said.
“The upcoming OPEC meeting is thus unlikely to ruin the oil party with respect to April supply as the total outcome is likely going to leave the market slightly short rather than in surplus.”
OPEC not yet ready to switch course
International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $63.01 a barrel on Tuesday morning, almost 1.1% lower, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures stood at $60.02, down more than 1%.
Oil prices, having climbed to a 13-month peak last month, appeared to extend losses that began last week on expectations that OPEC may be set to increase global supply.
“Our expectation is that they are going to rise in line with their previous policy deal which was announced in December of 2020. And that is to not increase production more than 500,000 barrels per day. We expect that policy to still be valid,” Louise Dickson, analyst at Rystad Energy, told CNBC via telephone.
She added that OPEC could, in theory, increase production by 1.3 million barrels per day, but “we don’t think they are going to overshoot this time around.”
“Russia will build up momentum in their market view, but we don’t see a complete switchover. For the last year, OPEC has been really firmly under the reins of Saudi Arabia, guiding the policy, making the calls, calling the shots, etc. And I don’t think that, after a year of such market and supply diligence, the group is ready to switch course just on a whim of $65 Brent or an increasingly tighter oil market,” she said.
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