中石化新闻讯 据2月24日Investing.com报导，牛顿定律表明，升高和降低是相对性的，石油价格也挺过去了一次又一次致命性的磨练。但是，新冠肺炎预苗发布的速率远不理想化，再加上英国经济复苏的易损性，让涨跌原油的人员觉得躁动不安。
特别注意的是，与一年前对比，全世界开车交通出行、坐飞机交通出行和坐船旅游的总数不断降低，因而，做长期性原油项目投资的投资人对车用汽油、航空燃油和燃料油要求皮软分毫不关注。自1月底至今，美原油每星期都是在降低，依据政府部门有关现行政策，预估将来几个月炼油厂商将有大量的要求，因而石油库存量发生降低。
除开印度和中国，在某种意义上，全球别的地域，尤其是英国，炼油厂商的潜在性要求超出了最后然料客户的要求。殊不知，石油和车用汽油等然料商品的价钱都处在疫情爆发前的高些，但这并不是说原油外汇交易商彻底忽略了销售市场上的全部负面信息要素。
上周五，基准价格发生了自1月中下旬至今的较大 单天下滑，英国西得克萨斯州中质石油价格下挫2%，纽约国际原油价钱下挫1.6%，缘故是大家担忧，得克萨斯州炼油厂生产制造的终断，很有可能会造成 化工厂停工，进而沉积石油库存量。
但那样的价钱下挫非常少，与10月底至今西得克萨斯州中质石油和国际原油价钱疯涨最少70%的极大上涨幅度对比，相差甚远。
一般状况下，一切大幅度下挫的价钱都是会被接着一两个股票交易时间更高的反跳所相抵。比如，周一WTI对英国1.9亿美金肺炎疫情援助法令的开朗心态暴涨4%，盖过去了上周五的售卖。
实际上，恰好是对这一刺激性对策的预估，债卷选购风潮和贴近零的年利率，造成 销售市场发生了很多便宜资产。其結果是，从个股到基本上全部类型的大宗商品现货，从掉期买卖到金融衍生品和组织私募基金经理的各种投资人所造成的选购，都发生了决定性的反跳。
因为大宗商品现货的涨幅一直是靠该笔丰富的收益支撑点的，因而，当注入销售市场的资产做到投资人心中中设置的某类短暂性最高值时，大宗商品现货的涨幅很有可能也会受到损伤。
事实上，一旦刺激性方案在美国国会得到根据，石油价格很有可能会发生回调函数。更槽糕的是，假如该法令因为种种原因在上议院沉没。在哪以前，能够觉得，不容易产生一切更有意义或长期性的原油售卖。
除开让尽量多的外国人疫苗接种外，拜登一直高宽比关心经济刺激法令，将其列入他就任一百天内的主要议程安排新项目。
3月中下旬的刺激性总体目标可能是油价上调的数据信号。上议院多数党领导者查克·舒默(Chuck Schumer)将3月14日列入拜登的肺炎疫情法令签定为法律法规的总体目标。这也可能是油价上调做到短期内最高值，并逐渐大幅度下降的总体目标。
自然，这种都并不是铁板钉钉的阶段，将来三周的能源需求也很有可能朝一切一个方位走。美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)预估，到第一季末，国际原油价钱将升到一桶70美元。此外，高盛公司(Goldman Sachs)觉得，到第三季度，全世界石油基准价格将做到一桶75美元。
将来一两周潜在性的石油库存量提升很有可能会对石油价格组成工作压力，尤其是假如得克萨斯州的化工厂必须比预估更长的時间才可以从30年来最比较严重的超级雷暴中再生，将对美国能源导致比较严重冲击性。
乌克兰早已在促进下星期对扩张后的opec 的生产制造协议书开展月度总结决议时大幅度提高生产量，巴黎是该机构的关键友军。当欧盟国家将于4月召开工作会议，制订新的生产量水准时，沙特将难以避免地要想撤消附加限产一百万桶的作法。
从情况看来，沙特和乌克兰一直可以控制住市场竞争，并坚持不懈服务承诺限产。总得来说，opec 仍保存着超出六百万桶/天的原油贮备生产能力。因而，依据国际能源署(International Energy Agency)全新的月度工作计划，全世界原油库存量将在半年度返回5年平均。去年夏天，伴随着要求大幅度降低，全世界原油库存量一度创出历史记录。
opec 的高产很有可能刺激性美国页岩油制造商在一年内初次提高效益，自2020年3月创出1310万桶/天的记录至今，美国页岩油生产量一直在降低。Smith强调，尽管辉绿岩钻探企业仍处在现钱节省方式，但WTI和国际原油价钱贴近一桶65美元的状况毫无疑问会激励她们提升生产量。
假如石油价格进到售卖环节，SK Dixit驻印尼Kolkata的投资分析师Sunil Kumar Dixit得出了一些案件线索，他觉得WTI将低至一桶51.60美元，国际原油低至一桶58.30美元
Newton’s Law says what goes up, must come down. Those long oil don’t want to hear that, of course.
Like the proverbial multi-lived cat, the rally in crude oil has outlasted one fatal test after another.
The far from desirable pace of the COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and the fragility of the US recovery from the pandemic are two examples of cautionary developments that have not bothered oil bulls one bit.
What’s notable is the indifference shown by the long-oil community to the anemic demand for gasoline, jet fuel and heavy fuel oils as the world continues to take fewer drives, flights and cruises, respectively, compared to a year ago.
This same group instead points to the weekly drawdowns in US crude seen since the end of January. The declines in crude inventories are occurring as refiners max out fuel products in anticipation of more demand in the coming months based on the immunization targets of the Biden administration and other governments.
Except for China—and to an extent, India—the rest of the world, especially the United States, is seeing more implied demand from refiners than demand ultimately from end-users of fuels. Yet, prices of both crude and fuel products like gasoline are trading at pre-pandemic highs.
This isn’t to say oil traders have completely ignored all the negatives in the market.
Last Friday, benchmark prices fell their most in a single day since mid-January, with US West Texas Intermediate crude losing 2% and London’s Brent 1.6%, on worries that the Arctic blast that disrupted production in Texas could extend to refinery outages that pile up crude stocks.
But such price declines are few and far between the otherwise humongous gains that have bloated the value of WTI and Brent by at least 70% since the end of October.
Often, any considerable slide in prices is offset by an even greater rally in the subsequent session or two. Friday’s selloff, for instance, was eclipsed by Monday’s 4% jump in WTI on optimism over Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill.
In fact, it’s expectations over this stimulus, combined with the bond-buying bonanza and near-zero interest rates of the Federal Reserve since the start of the pandemic, that has created a flood of cheap money in the markets. The result has been an overpowering rally in equities to commodities of almost all kinds, from buying generated by investors of all types, from day-traders to hedge funds and institutional money managers.
Since this gravy train is what has been keeping the commodities rally chugging, it’s likely that its run might also hit a bump when the flow of money to the markets reaches some sort of a temporal peak set in the minds of investors.
In practical terms, a correction in oil might be triggered once the window for Biden’s stimulus closes with its passage through Congress. Or worse, if the bill falters for some reason in the Senate, where Democrats backing the president have an effective majority of just one. Until then, it might be safe to assume that no meaningful or prolonged selloff in oil will happen.
Biden has been laser-focused on the stimulus bill, making it the number one agenda item of his first 100 days in office, aside from immunizing as many Americans as possible. And the cheerleaders in both commodities and on Wall Street—notwithstanding the NASDAQ-led selloff
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has set Mar. 14 as his target for Biden’s COVID-19 bill to be signed into law. That might also be the target for the oil rally to reach a temporal peak, and for an appreciable retreat to set in.
Of course, none of this is cast in stone, and energy prices could go either way over the next three weeks. Bank of America Merrill Lynch sees Brent up as high as $70 by the end of the first quarter. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, thinks the global crude benchmark will reach $75 by the third quarter.
Potential crude stockpile builds over the next week or two might weigh on oil prices, especially if refineries in Texas take longer than expected to rebound from the worst snowstorm in three decades to hit the heartland of US energy.
There’s also the other big question on what the US and Iran could achieve over the next few weeks in negotiations for Tehran to once again export its oil to the world without Trump-era sanctions.
Of course, the big “if” for this will be whether the Islamic Republic will first meet Biden’s demand to stop all uranium-enrichment—i.e. nuclear-bomb making—efforts to be considered for a deal by the White House.
“This increases our conviction in a tight oil market this summer, when we expect OECD inventories to normalize,” it added, referring to stockpiles in the world’s most developed countries.
The OPEC output referenced by Goldman Sachs circles back to the observations made earlier this week by my colleague Geoffrey Smith on the seemingly endless oil rally.
That article notes that Russia is already pushing for a big increase in output at next week’s monthly review of the production pact of the enlarged Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, known as OPEC , which Moscow is a leading ally of.
When the bloc meets in April to set new output levels, its leader Saudi Arabia will inevitably want to reverse a unilateral cut of 1 million barrels a day that the kingdom enacted to preserve a unity that was already cracking a month ago.
For context, Saudi Arabia and Russia have been able to keep their rivalry under control and have stuck to their pledged output cuts. In all, OPEC is still withholding over 6 million barrels a day of oil production capacity in reserve. As a result, world stockpiles, which hit record levels as demand plummeted last summer, are due to be back at their five-year average by the middle of the year, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest monthly report.
OPEC increases could spur US shale drillers to raise for the first time in a year their production, which has been on the wane since hitting a record high of 13.1 million bpd in March 2020. While shale drillers are still in cash conservation mode, the sight of both WTI and Brent trading at near $65 would definitely be an encouragement to add barrels, Smith noted.
Sunil Kumar Dixit of SK Dixit Charting in Kolkata, India, gives some clues, pegging WTI to as low of $51.60 and Brent at $58.30.
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